Since CarLiTox deleted the original post instead of apologizing to the community, I'm summarizing everything here again. I never wanted to make a big drama out of this, but if you keep trying to lie and sweep everything under the rug, then this has to be said.
Here's the full story for everyone who missed it:
CarLiTox hosted a giveaway where you had to guess his birth time. The correct answer was 12:59. The winner? -Lyra. who just so happens to be in the same clan as CarLiTox.
Why this is sus:
Even with around 90 participants, the chance that anyone guesses the exact minute is only about 6%, calculated as (1439/1440)^90. There were no hints given. But that alone isn't even the problem. It's the full picture:
- Day 1: Lyra originally guessed 13:31. That comment was later deleted
- 5 days later, about 22 hours before the results, she suddenly changed her guess to 12:59 — the exact correct answer
- As far as I know she was the only one who changed their guess. But why would you change your guess unless you got a hint or the answer itself?
- Lyra and CarLiTox are in the same clan
Any one of these alone? Sure, maybe coincidence. But all of them together? That's not a coincidence anymore.
CarLiTox's statement on this was:
"It wasn't because we're on the same clan that I gave her the answer, we talked about it years ago and she remembered about it, and no she's not the only one who changed her post."
And it gets even better.
I then noticed that other clan members also posted their guesses around 22 hours before the results:
- 12:18 Wendy
- 12:20 Zenda
- 12:38 Swethzy
- 12:59 Lyra
All from the same clan. All guessing within the same hour. All posted in the same time window. That does not look random at all. That looks like they got a hint internally, probably that the birth time was somewhere between 12 and 13
So we're supposed to believe that Lyra just remembered the exact time from a conversation years ago and happened to change her guess right before the results? While her whole clan suddenly guessed in the same time window? Yeah right
Those aren't explanations, those are excuses. And instead of properly addressing any of this the post was just deleted. No apology. No transparency. Just swept under the rug
The actual winner should be @Aureole with a guess of 13:07.
If CarLieTox doesn't give Kurumi. the €25 prize within 24 hours, I will pay it myself. Because a rigged giveaway shouldn't mean someone who played fair walks away with nothing
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