Not tryna hate, but this whole thing feels hella sus
And the reason is not just one random detail
Math-wise:
Guessing the exact minute is 1 in 1440 (around 0.07%)
So yeah, hitting that exactly is already kinda crazy by itself.
Also, we didn’t get a single hint.
But the main issue is the full sequence:
- On day 1: Lyra apparently guessed 13:31 first. Then that comment got deleted. (I know changing/deleting guesses was allowed, but..)
- After 5 Days, about 22 hours before results, she suddenly posted 12:59 instead, which ended up being the exact correct time
- As far as I know, she was also the only person who changed their guess after posting. Correct me if I’m wrong tho. (But why? because she probably got a hint or the correct answer?)
- On top of that, Lyra and CarLitox are in the same clan
Any one of these things alone? Maybe just coincidence
But taken together, it’s really hard to trust
It’s not just one weird detail.
It’s the combination of:
wrong first guess + deleted comment + changed guess shortly before results + exact correct time + same clan.
sorry, but that combo is what makes this look so suspicious
The math part is misleading.
The 1/1440 argument sounds convincing at first, but its actually for a different scenario.
Thats the probability for one specific person guessing correct.
Here in our case, let say there are 90-95(out of 107 comments) are comments of guesses. Lets go on 90. So the actual probability is that someone gets it right(At least one), which is 1-(1439/1440)^90, around 6.06%, which is around 1 in 16( way higher compared to 1/1440).
Also once at least one person gets it right, there is around 97%(5.875/6.06) chance that it will be exactly one person. so if there are already winners, its more likely to be one.
Sooo statistically, nothing here is thatttt "crazy".
If something seems suspicious, its not because of the math but because of other things, not the probability itself.
The 1/1440 argument sounds convincing at first, but its actually for a different scenario.
Thats the probability for one specific person guessing correct.
Here in our case, let say there are 90-95(out of 107 comments) are comments of guesses. Lets go on 90. So the actual probability is that someone gets it right(At least one), which is 1-(1439/1440)^90, around 6.06%, which is around 1 in 16( way higher compared to 1/1440).
Also once at least one person gets it right, there is around 97%(5.875/6.06) chance that it will be exactly one person. so if there are already winners, its more likely to be one.
Sooo statistically, nothing here is thatttt "crazy".
If something seems suspicious, its not because of the math but because of other things, not the probability itself.
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